6.4 Quake To Hit L.A. By Sept 5th

[nokeone]

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/tectonics-04d.html

interesting at the very least..

[citizen]

Hallelujah! L.A. is a cess-pool anyways...

[Brian]

i didnt read the link but my geology teacher says that we should have a quake any day. we are past due!

[nokeone]

you lazy ass bastard...and you call yourself a student?!?...it's an interesting read anyway...should i copy and past it for you?..

punk..:p

[nokeone]

UCLA Geophysicist Warns 6.4 Quake To Hit LA By Sept 5'


Los Angeles - Apr 15, 2004
A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claiming to have cracked a holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will hit southern California by Sept 5.
Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way.

And he has made a chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magnitude on the Richter scale will hit a 31,200-square-kilometre area of southern California by September 5.

The team at UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics accurately predicted a 6.5-magnitude quake in central California last December as well as an 8.1-magnitude temblor that struck the Japanese island of Hokkaido in September.

"Earthquake prediction is called the Holy Grail of earthquake science, and has been considered impossible by many scientists," said Keilis-Borok, 82.

"It is not impossible.

"We have made a major breakthrough, discovering the possibility of making predictions months ahead of time, instead of years, as in previously known methods."

If accurate, the prediction method would be critical in an area like California, which is criss-crossed by fault lines that have spawned devastating quakes over the years including ones which ravaged San Francisco in 1989 and Los Angeles in 1994.

That has given credence to his research, which was endorsed by a state panel, the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, earlier this month.

"Even two years back it was practically a dirty word to say earthquake prediction," said Nancy Sauer, an organiser of the annual conference of the Seismological Society of America which began yesterday in Palm Springs.

The UCLA team - made up of US, Japanese, Canadian, European and Russian experts in pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory, statistical physics and public safety - says it has developed algorithms to detect earthquake patterns.

The experts predicted in June an earthquake measuring 6.4 or higher would strike within nine months in a 496-kilometre region of central California, including San Simeon, where a 6.5-magnitude temblor struck December 22, killing two people.

In July, they said they predicted a magnitude 7.0 or higher quake in a region that included Hokkaido by December 28. The September 25 quake fell within that period.

Now they predict a major quake will hit an area that stretches across desert regions to the east of Los Angeles, home to around nine million people, including the Mojave desert and the resort town of Palm Springs, which lies near the notorious San Andreas fault.

That is where experts began gathering for the Seismological Society of America conference that looks sure to be dominated by passionate discussion of Keilis-Borok's prediction method.

"There is something going on," Sauer told the Desert Sun newspaper in Palm Springs. "People are at least willing to entertain the idea. It is not seen so much as junk science now."

Another seismic expert, University of Oregon professor Ray Weldon, was scheduled to present findings to the conference that appear to support Keilis-Borok's research by saying the San Andreas fault is about to enter a new and violent period of shaking.

The data, according to the Desert Sun, was gathered over 18 years around the famed fault, showing it is under high levels of stress.

"You could consider that support (for Keilis-Borok's research)," Weldon was quoted as saying. "But I dont lend any insight or support to a window of time."

But researchers still point to the fact that the science of earthquake prediction has been notoriously inaccurate and the geographic area targeted by the UCLA team for an imminent quake is very large.

"It is not specific," said Susan Hough, a seismologist for the US Geological Survey based in Pasadena, near Los Angeles. "They've made three predictions and two of them have been borne out."

Keilis-Borok himself acknowledged the caution expressed by some of his colleagues. "Application of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory is often counter-intuitive, so acceptance by some research teams will take time."

But if his latest prediction that the earth will move in the area around Los Angeles within the next five months proves accurate, his research could end up saving lives and transforming seismology.

[itslogics]

damn that sucks!! Good thing I live in good ol misery, I mean missouri.

[Andrew Bohan]

hmm, maybe all the cool people can take a vacation somewhere and all the criminals and ricers can get earthquaked to death

[drift freaq]

having been through the Loma Prieta quake in 1989 a 6.5 does not scare me in the least. Also I read the article about that prediction in the L A Times two days ago. The guy basically stated it was going to hit a desert region i.e. Palmdale( famous for the Palmdale bulge a section of the San Andreas fault that has been expanding for years and is overdue for a good quake) and or Lancaster and the mojave. It would give us a good shake here but probably nothing near as damaging as the upwards motion force of the Northridge quake in the early 90's that had the g force of a space shuttle at launch. Northridge by the way folks is smack in the San Fernando Valley i.e. just over the Hill from the main part of Los Angeles and Hollywood.

[S14Speed997]

I think Florida is supposed to get 4 MAJOR hurricanes this year too...It's the end of the world gentlemen...get as much lovin' as you can, cause you can't take it with you!

Oh, that made for tv movie "10.5" looks pretty sweet, i'll have to watch it ...

[Phlip]

North Carolina is beginning to look so much better me in times like this one...

[mrmephistopheles]

lol.. glad i'm going to Japan soon.. Hopefully Godzira won't attack while I'm there.

[ca18guy]

lol.. glad i'm going to Japan soon.. Hopefully Godzira won't attack while I'm there.

Quakes, typhoons, volcanos, tidal waves and godzilla love Japan, have fun :wavey:

[NismoGear5]

just had a mini quake here in Japan last night hahah 4.8 magnitude woah! hahah I thought that I had ran away from all the Cali earthquakes only to be stuck with this :duh: Loving it so far though

[Ghettokracker71]

virginia is beginning to look so much better me in times like this one...

Yeah definitely agreed

[crioten]

damn that sucks!! Good thing I live in good ol misery, I mean missouri.

haha, i agree with ya on the misery part but thats as far as it goes...from what i learned in highschool missouri is way overdue for another HUGE quake...ever hear about the ones around the turn of the century that really were strong, strong enough to make the mississippi river flow backwards, change the path of the river, and it shook church bells in boston? well they say that we should have another one of those anytime soon

[Brian]

still didnt read it. i'll just assume i know what it says. :)

[nokeone]

i'ma kick your ass when i see you this weekend!...:whip:

[Wei240]

well, we'll see, it's only couple months till sept