It must be a Depression

[RJF]

Unemployment rate increased to 7.2 percent in December, highest level since Bill Clinton was in office.

Strange, I don't remember us being in a depression back then.

The United States Unemployment Rate (http://www.miseryindex.us/urbymonth.asp)

[DALAZ_68]

went to the bank to deposit my Insurance settlement check and everyone ahead of me and behind had there statue of liberty check ready...freakin insane...

[Brian]

Obama will CHANGE everything and be the new American Jesus.

savior, we worship thee.


I mean hell, I saw water bottles with his picture on them for sale at 7-Eleven.


Don't worry, with all this hype, he MUST fix everything, right?

[Daniel.]

Obama will CHANGE everything and be the new American Jesus.

savior, we worship thee.


I mean hell, I saw water bottles with his picture on them for sale at 7-Eleven.


Don't worry, with all this hype, he MUST fix everything, right?

http://tinypic.com/2i7kzzr.jpg

[Matej]

Hey y'all, I've grown tired of all the sarcasm on Zilvia.

[s14kings]

Then leave.

[Dousan_PG]

unemployement went up when GW took office eh?

and it dropped when clinton was in office.
dropped quickly and steadily.


nice twist on the facts, RJF

bushs (#1 and #2) were in offices when unemployment was highest
and clinton brought it down.

[Brian]

1982 and 1983 were pretty bad.

[Dousan_PG]

yes reagan
republican

haha

[240trainee]

And there is more to the economy that unemployment rates anyway.

[LeftNutOfGowd]

http://tinypic.com/2i7kzzr.jpg

HAHAHAHA oh god :bowdown::bowdown::bowdown:

[Matej]

Then leave.
Goodbye. :(

[FaLKoN240]

unemployement went up when GW took office eh?

and it dropped when clinton was in office.
dropped quickly and steadily.


nice twist on the facts, RJF

bushs (#1 and #2) were in offices when unemployment was highest
and clinton brought it down.

Dousan's truth > RJF's.

[atutt]

What is a Statue of Liberty check?
Forgive me I'm Canadian...

[sillyvia13]

lol...I guess RJF has a dry humor no one gets much...

Its all BS anyway.

The polls dont show shit.
No one hears about entire towns losing jobs like the dhl hub in Ohio? 12,000 jobs in a town with 15,000 people.

Its gonna be A O K>
Obama got a set of Change Air Force Ones now! shits dope. all blue with his change logo.
You know shits gonna be AWSOMETOWN! when your new pres has logo's, colors, a obama girl, a hip wife who does the Repsect knuckles. I thought that was for hardcore internet nerds like me! SHIT.

all I know is I have been out of a job for like 6 years.
no one reported on that.
Why am I not imortant.
lol.

I say we all get gas, and make a race track and rebuild the economy 1 drift at a time.
its our duty as car nerds. hahaha

[sillyvia13]

What is a Statue of Liberty check?
Forgive me I'm Canadian...

no clue, I guess recently in Nh when we had a ice strom the govt gave all the welfare peeps like $300 in food money due to no lights? huh?

I was hungry and no one took me out. lol. :eek2:

People rely on the Govt for all, and when you do and they remove the hand that feeds you, you shall understand true LIFE. trying to survive in a wild world as a civilized human is not gonna be easy.
Make me be thankful for being the caveman I am today. argggh

[blueshark123]

What is a Statue of Liberty check?
Forgive me I'm Canadian...

Im guessing unemployment check?

[DALAZ_68]

Im guessing unemployment check?

Ding ding ding


the check has a statue of liberty on one side with a multi colored background, green/orangy/yellow ish back round...

[HyperTek]

got this email this morning

Dear MoveOn member,

The bad news: As of this morning, unemployment hit a 16-year high. We're in trouble.1

The good news: Yesterday, President-elect Obama laid out a bold plan for how to get us out of this economic crisis and invest in 3 million jobs. It's smart and progressive—doubling clean energy production, providing health care for laid-off workers, and offering real relief to struggling states.2

But the most important parts are already under attack by oil and health insurance lobbyists, joined by congressional conservatives who want to replace these progressive provisions with tax cuts for the rich.3

Only a massive public outcry will get Obama's plan passed intact. Can you sign our petition to Congress to pass Obama's economic plan right away? Click here to add your name:

MoveOn.org Political Action: Obama's plan under attack (http://pol.moveon.org/economy/o.pl?id=15353-14509168-y4kb2vx&t=3)

In a few days, MoveOn members across the nation will deliver the petition signatures to the local offices of key undecided lawmakers, so every signature is crucial!

The petition says: "Congress should quickly pass Obama's plan to invest in clean energy, green jobs, health care, and relief for struggling states. No more tax cuts for the rich."

The investments Obama wants to make are the most effective way to stimulate the economy in the short-term and invest for the long-term:

* doubling clean energy production in three years;
* building a smart electric grid to distribute clean energy;
* weatherizing federal buildings and homes;
* creating millions of new green jobs;
* helping laid-off workers afford health care; and
* making sure struggling cities and states don't have to slash services.4

But conservatives in Congress are countering Obama's plan with a proposal for more tax cuts that will primarily benefit the wealthy,5 even though, as Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman affirms, "public investment is a much better way to provide economic stimulus than tax cuts."6

And energy industry lobbyists are quietly working behind the scenes to kill some of the most important green jobs provisions in the bill.

All the bickering is severely delaying Obama's plan, which he originally hoped to pass by Inauguration Day. As Obama said yesterday, if we don't act in time, "a bad situation could become dramatically worse."7

And it's not just the economy that could suffer. If Obama doesn't win big on this first fight, he won't have the political momentum to keep going on health care, clean energy, and ending the war in Iraq.

Can you get Obama's back by urging Congress to pass his economic recovery plan immediately? Clicking here will add your name:

MoveOn.org Political Action: Obama's plan under attack (http://pol.moveon.org/economy/o.pl?id=15353-14509168-y4kb2vx&t=4)

Thanks for all you do.

[aziankingz]

ba-roke obama?

[RJF]

My point is, what makes this recession so different than the one during the Clinton presidency and the one after 9/11?

We didn't spend $1 Trillion dollars back then, instead tax rates were cut to allow people to keep more of their money, and people started spending, companies had money for investment and to create jobs. Yes, there was some increased government spending on defense and security, but not $1 trillion worth.

If this proposed plan goes through and we all get "welfare" from the government, the economy will get worse, and who is going to pay for all this? Companies and small-business owners (aka "The Rich" - according to Dems definition).

[Brian]

Poor people don't deserve hand outs.

[stiizy]

Hey y'all, I've grown tired of all the sarcasm on Zilvia.

you on the wrong site then buddy...

Poor people don't deserve hand outs.

Poor people who put themselves in their situation don't deserve hand-outs...

(junkies, gamblers, alcoholics)

That's why i never give bums money...

[imotion s14]

unemployement went up when GW took office eh?

and it dropped when clinton was in office.
dropped quickly and steadily.


nice twist on the facts, RJF

bushs (#1 and #2) were in offices when unemployment was highest
and clinton brought it down.

Short attention span? I guess you missed the double digit inflation during the carter years.

Clinton didn't bring anything down. He merely was president during the Internet Bubble.

got this email this morning

:hahano:

Government doesn't create jobs, all they can do is redirect resources from the private sector. Most of the jobs being lost, the majority of them are from the service and retail sector. Those people aren't going to be shoveling tar on the roads.

Not only that but how is fixing our infrastructure going to help us pay back our debt? Our manufacturing sector is a hallow shell. We owe trillions to China, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and building roads here isn't going to pay them back. That's like a person who is in debt going into more debt to remodel his house.

It's funny that economics on a personal, local and state government level in the face of debt, reduce spending. Yet on a national level we need to run up huge deficits to cure debt?

Fucking lunacy.

[cc4usmc]

Obama got a set of Change Air Force Ones now! shits dope. all blue with his change logo.


I thought you were talking about THE Air Force One lol. Looked it up and the shoe came up haha. doh! :duh:

[stiizy]

Obama got a set of Change Air Force Ones now! shits dope. all blue with his change logo.


They're Fake Nike never produced one pair of them...

That one pair was custom and then a flock of chinese bootlegs added...

[imotion s14]

My point is, what makes this recession so different than the one during the Clinton presidency and the one after 9/11?

We didn't spend $1 Trillion dollars back then, instead tax rates were cut to allow people to keep more of their money, and people started spending, companies had money for investment and to create jobs. Yes, there was some increased government spending on defense and security, but not $1 trillion worth.

If this proposed plan goes through and we all get "welfare" from the government, the economy will get worse, and who is going to pay for all this? Companies and small-business owners (aka "The Rich" - according to Dems definition).

No, this recession is the result of government intervention of the last 2 recessions they interfered with. There was a recession in the early 90s. The Feds lowered interest rates and created all this easy credit. Which flowed into the tech bubble of the 90s. The NASDAQ index was grossly over valued and it crashed and we had another recession earlier this decade. The Feds stepped in again, lowered interest rates again and created even more credit. When the tech bubble burst it flowed into the housing bubble.

The feds lowered the rate to 0 - .25% last month.

[drift freaq]

unemployement went up when GW took office eh?

and it dropped when clinton was in office.
dropped quickly and steadily.


nice twist on the facts, RJF

bushs (#1 and #2) were in offices when unemployment was highest
and clinton brought it down.

Aaron while you are good with cars and deserve your due. You suck at political and financial analysis based on your above statement.

Fact one Bush 1 came into office in the midst of recession.

Fact two: He ate shit politically because of it.

Fact three: Clinton inherited a upswing out of economy and the dot com boom. It had nothing to do with his economic policies.

Fact four: The whole relaxation of credit and legislation making credit access easy was initiated by the Democratic house and passed and signed into law by Clinton. That was the beginning of what would lead to the current financial mess and credit mess we are in now.

Fact Five: While I do not like Bush 2 or his policies, he pretty much inherited this mess and downturn from the actions taken during the Clinton administration. The only faults on the financial side of the current administration have been the excessive spending on Iraq. Which had no effect on the financial crisis as it was something completely outside it and the SEC chairman Cox not doing his job properly. Which did have some effect.

So before you go and start laying blame I suggest you go back and study financial markets and economic policies.

P.S. I am a registered Democrat so do not take this as a Republican speaking. I just know enough about this stuff to vote with intelligence rather than party line dogma.


To everyone else RJF is right. This is not a depression its a recession quite similar to one in the early 70's. I should also add you guys have no idea how bad it can be. Try living in the days of double digit inflation like we had in the 70's.
Yes job reports are the worst they have been since 1945 but that is still not a depression. In the great depression there was 30% unemployment. We are hovering around 9% right now. aka Recession people.

[HalveBlue]

No, this recession is the result of government intervention of the last 2 recessions they interfered with. There was a recession in the early 90s. The Feds lowered interest rates and created all this easy credit. Which flowed into the tech bubble of the 90s. The NASDAQ index was grossly over valued and it crashed and we had another recession earlier this decade. The Feds stepped in again, lowered interest rates again and created even more credit. When the tech bubble burst it flowed into the housing bubble.

The feds lowered the rate to 0 - .25% last month.

DING!DING!DING!

Bingo!

You got it spot on.

Also, we're in a recesion, not a depression.

That won't happen for another 6-12 months.

I don't think people realize that when economists are saying this is just the beginning, this really is just the beginning.

Hmm...I'm thinking about writing a primer on the current economic situation, because I don't think a lot of people know the full implications of whats going on right now, or the mechanics behind what's going on.

Anyone down to get down into some serious knowledge exchange? Like essay type stuff?

[S14DB]

Bush is still the president guys...

[Dousan_PG]

yeah i know dave
i was just having fun before work, i could care less about politics, espiecally on zilvia. hahaha
its the internet!

[Gnnr]

Unemployment rate increased to 7.2 percent in December, highest level since Bill Clinton was in office.

Strange, I don't remember us being in a depression back then.

The United States Unemployment Rate (http://www.miseryindex.us/urbymonth.asp)

WTF are you talking about Bill Clinton for? The unemployment rate was over 7 when he became president and replaced George H. W. Bush. It began to decline after he came into office.

http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000

[BustedS13]

i haven't seen this many people living in boxcars since '29

[SochBAT]

Hoover Town.

BITCH, GET OFF MY CARDBOARD!

[ronmcdon]

Fact four: The whole relaxation of credit and legislation making credit access easy was initiated by the Democratic house and passed and signed into law by Clinton. That was the beginning of what would lead to the current financial mess and credit mess we are in now.

Fact Five: While I do not like Bush 2 or his policies, he pretty much inherited this mess and downturn from the actions taken during the Clinton administration. The only faults on the financial side of the current administration have been the excessive spending on Iraq. Which had no effect on the financial crisis as it was something completely outside it and the SEC chairman Cox not doing his job properly. Which did have some effect.


Great analysis, but it can be said that the junk mortgages began even as early as the Carter years with the passing of the community reinvestment act. I see this as the most damaging policy.

FDIC: FDIC Law, Regulations, Related Acts - Consumer Protection (http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/6500-2515.html)
Wiki link; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act

There were several revisions to this act in the Clinton and W years that didn't make things any better. I also don't think the Fed (esp under Greenspan & Bernanke) is without fault either.

Agreed not everything is Bush's fault (as convenient and appealing is it might be)

[supportTHEezln]

WTF are you talking about Bill Clinton for? The unemployment rate was over 7 when he became president and replaced George H. W. Bush. It began to decline after he came into office.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data (http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000)

Well played.

[sarcasm text]But dude, you're going to trust those statistics over the misery index! So much more unreliable! [/sarcasm text]

[BustedS13]

Hoover Town.

BITCH, GET OFF MY CARDBOARD!

i boiled my shoes last night to make soup

[BustedS13]

it's the democrats' fault

[BustedS13]

wooddrow wilson was a democrat in office from 1913-1921

the great depression was his fault, not hoover's

they should have been called wilsontowns

[lflkajfj12123]

that one guy that posted a lot of information is like an almanac

what a pro

[ESmorz]

I hate the economy too.

http://rofl.wheresthebeef.co.uk/Emo%20Kid%2001.jpg

[Mi Beardo es Loco]

wait, I'm confused. In 1992 the yearly AVERAGE for unemployment was 7.5. That was Bush sr. who was president. Clinton was inaugurated in 1993 where the yearly average dropped to 6.9 in 1993, 6.1 in 1994, 5.6 in 1995, 5.4 in 1996, 4.9 in 97, 4.5 in 98, 4.2 in 99, and 4.0 in 2000. EVERY year that Clinton was president the average dropped.
Since 2001 the average has jumped around a ton but has now reached the same low that his father reached in 1992.
Is it a coincidence that this happened?



edit: fixed it ESmorz.

[ESmorz]

Clinton was inaugurated in 2003

:ugh:

que?

[driven_]

:ugh:

que?
:lfault:

haha.

i dunno.
but i'm gonna get a segway. and sell my car.
wait i dont even have a car anymore.
d'oh! :faint:

[iwishiwas-all*]

well here is the real truth:

Ok, everything is in the fucking shitter, you, me and the rest of America all know it. Regardless of how it was started, it needs to be fixed. Now I would bet my sexy Lebanese ass that regardless of who is in power, shit will not go on much longer because people will not tolerate it. When people want change, they will get it. You can see this by Obama winning the presidency, not because his policies were so much different, but because he was different than the guy who was running things when the country went south.

so please RJF, stop with this partisan bullshit every week. instead of being a problem, get with the rest of the country and try to be apart of the solution. this is the path the country obviously chose, so you gotta fucking deal with it. I just want to make sure I will have a job when I get out of school and a possibility for a prosperous life and I dont care who helps us get there just as long as we do.

[drift freaq]

yeah i know dave
i was just having fun before work, i could care less about politics, espiecally on zilvia. hahaha
its the internet!

Fair enough Aaron, you can be given that and yes it is the internet. LOL and ZILVIAAAAA!

[imotion s14]

wait, I'm confused. In 1992 the yearly AVERAGE for unemployment was 7.5. That was Bush sr. who was president. Clinton was inaugurated in 1993 where the yearly average dropped to 6.9 in 1993, 6.1 in 1994, 5.6 in 1995, 5.4 in 1996, 4.9 in 97, 4.5 in 98, 4.2 in 99, and 4.0 in 2000. EVERY year that Clinton was president the average dropped.
Since 2001 the average has jumped around a ton but has now reached the same low that his father reached in 1992.
Is it a coincidence that this happened?



edit: fixed it ESmorz.

that's because we had a bubble economy. Remember? The tech bubble? All those internet companies and their grossly overvalued IPOs that made their initial investors overnight millionaires who bled hundreds of million to gain market share but had no viable business model to actually generate real profit? It's like people who voted for Obama totally forgot when these companies and their spectacular crash never occured and they think voting democrat will magically take us back to the 90's internet bubble economy.

[driven_]

I hate the economy too.



i wonder how much blood/grease would come out of those fat arms.

[Gnnr]

that's because we had a bubble economy. Remember? The tech bubble? All those internet companies and their grossly overvalued IPOs that made their initial investors overnight millionaires who bled hundreds of million to gain market share but had no viable business model to actually generate real profit? It's like people who voted for Obama totally forgot when these companies and their spectacular crash never occured and they think voting democrat will magically take us back to the 90's internet bubble economy.


Yeah, that bubble was from 1998-2001. How do you account for the other years?

[BustedS13]

so please RJF, stop with this partisan bullshit every week. instead of being a problem, get with the rest of the country and try to be apart of the solution. this is the path the country obviously chose, so you gotta fucking deal with it.

stop making sense
let's fite more about senseless bullshit

SEAN HANNITY SAID SO MOTHER FUCKER

[SlideWell]

i need to pick up another copy of this
http://www.stonesoup.co.za/images/fable.jpg

[imotion s14]

Yeah, that bubble was from 1998-2001. How do you account for the other years?

it started in 1995.

[imotion s14]

Great analysis, but it can be said that the junk mortgages began even as early as the Carter years with the passing of the community reinvestment act. I see this as the most damaging policy.

FDIC: FDIC Law, Regulations, Related Acts - Consumer Protection (http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/6500-2515.html)
Wiki link; Community Reinvestment Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act)

There were several revisions to this act in the Clinton and W years that didn't make things any better. I also don't think the Fed (esp under Greenspan & Bernanke) is without fault either.

Agreed not everything is Bush's fault (as convenient and appealing is it might be)

thats what happens when government interferes with the market. It distorts everything.

Apparently 20-30% down and an interest rate set based on your risk of defaulting is racist.

:jerkit:.

[renegade_ewok]

And there is more to the economy that unemployment rates anyway.
I am really glad someone said it because its just so blatantly obvious. Employment rates aren't everything.

[DALAZ_68]

i wonder how much blood/grease would come out of those fat arms.


what are you talking about, WE STRUCK OIL :keke:

[imotion s14]

so please RJF, stop with this partisan bullshit every week. instead of being a problem, get with the rest of the country and try to be apart of the solution. this is the path the country obviously chose, so you gotta fucking deal with it. I just want to make sure I will have a job when I get out of school and a possibility for a prosperous life and I dont care who helps us get there just as long as we do.

Why would he want to? The path the country has chosen to go down is massive deficit spending during a recession, massive debt and possible massive inflation. No one wants to manufacture anything because that means factory jobs instead of borrowing money to buy houses and flipping it for profit. No one wants to save because they means they can't fill their houses with junk they don't really need and most throw away after a year.

Why would anyone want to follow people, the majority of which are absolutely clueless about economics? They only choose this path because of their total lack of education on the matter and a belief in one man can radically change something as dynamic as the market. They voted for the other side of the same coin because they believed the economy we had under Clinton, fueled by a massive internet bubble was so wonderful.

Bubble economies pop, that's why they are called bubbles.

We don't need bubble economies. We need a real economy, we need to save, we need to stop living beyond our means and we need to manufacture things to sell. None of this is what's being proposed because if people start saving, it would mean a recession because 2/3rds of our economy is debt based consumption.

I bet this country wish they had bit the bullet and paid off the debt when it was one trillion. Now it's 11 trillion and 5 years from now it's gonna be 16 trillion, maybe more.

They say "we'll just pay it back later, trillion dollar deficits should matter in the short term. We need to soften this thing!"

Ask yourself this.. If they won't take the pain of it now, what makes you think they will bite the bullet when the debt is even larger and even more painful later on down the road?

Right now every American needs to watch out for themselves because the government's action is only going to make everything worse and spread the misery.

[RJF]

so please RJF, stop with this partisan bullshit every week. instead of being a problem, get with the rest of the country and try to be apart of the solution. this is the path the country obviously chose, so you gotta fucking deal with it. I just want to make sure I will have a job when I get out of school and a possibility for a prosperous life and I dont care who helps us get there just as long as we do.

Who said anything partisan, I'm just stating facts. The economy has been way worse in the late 70's, early 80's, early 90's, yet no one was screaming to spend $1 trillion dollars on some BS government solution and to create jobs. Government doesn't create jobs, businesses do. Look at the Great Depression, FDR and the New Deal spending actually prolonged the situation for almost 12 years.

Government and increased spending is not the solution, government and their regulation is the problem that got us into this mess.

When you get out of school and into the real world with a good-paying job and have to write the IRS a check for $10,000 on April 15th (believe me, I've had to do it) , you'll realize that all this Government spending does nothing to make anyone's life better, it's just to give politicians power, make people more dependent on handouts and continue this deficit-spending spiral which hurts the economy in the long run.

[neverrain]

1982 and 1983 were pretty bad.

You weren't even alive lol.

[ronmcdon]

thats what happens when government interferes with the market. It distorts everything.

Apparently 20-30% down and an interest rate set based on your risk of defaulting is racist.

:jerkit:.

Lol, I'm not so sure that all government intervention is bad, but I'd like to think that some are more disastrous than others. In the 2008 financial crisis, I'm more convinced the culprit was poor regulation of sub-prime loans instead of insufficient regulation of the overall economy.

I have no problem with government acts that encourage lending that was otherwise restricted to racial factors. If you have $ and a sufficient credit history, I'm not sure why it makes sense to discriminate lending based on race and other non-financial factors.

However, I do think it's questionable to lend $$$ out to lower-middle income households that cannot realistically pay it off. economic policy and being PC about class discrimination shouldn't be mixed together.

If regulation has to be put in effect, address the source of the problem. prohibit junk loans entirely. I'm not convinced that anything will be solved by regulating any other part of the economy.

[Gnnr]

it started in 1995.

Oh really? Where'd you get that from? Wikipedia? Because I've actually read studies and seen documentaries on it. The craze really began in 98 and what was happening before was the humble beginnings of it...prove me wrong though, I always like to learn more.

[MrFixIt]

imotion, very thoughtfull post. Couple things...
The path the country has chosen to go down is massive deficit spending during a recession
According to the prevailing economic school of thought, one way to pull an economy out of a recession/depression is through what's called expansionary fiscal policy. Basically having the government spend a bunch of money on projects (Common example: The public infrastructure projects done under FDR (Interstate highway system, Hoover dam, etc...). Now, that's not to say that any government spending is usefull. The key is to invest in projects and infrastructure that can help our nation become more efficient and productive in the future. Simply racking up a huge debt fighting a war will not by itself help the situation.

No one wants to manufacture anything because that means factory jobs instead of borrowing money to buy houses and flipping it for profit. We don't need bubble economies. We need a real economy, we need to save, we need to stop living beyond our means and we need to manufacture things to sell.

Couldn't agree with you more. As our manufacturing sectors have been slowly phased out, we have more and more become an economy based on secondary goods and services (roughly 30%), such as insurance, consulting, and financial services. Basically we have built an economy based on people moving money around. While this is great and all, and certainly has a place within the economy, I beleive that there is a disproportionate number of people and resources devoted solely to day trading fucking wheat futures in lebanon to try score a quick grand or two.

I was kind of an econ nut in highschool. Forgive me :p

[HalveBlue]

Oh really? Where'd you get that from? Wikipedia? Because I've actually read studies and seen documentaries on it. The craze really began in 98 and what was happening before was the humble beginnings of it...prove me wrong though, I always like to learn more.

Actually you are right. The internet bubble didn't start in 1995, the increase in tech stock did. The bubble was a result of the success of internet based corporations which started in the mid-90's.

With that said, imotion is spot on, on everything else.

According to some economists, this "bailout" program has a tally of close to 8 trillion dollars!

8 trillions dollar we don't have, I might add.

The banking crisis of last year allegedly wiped out two trillion dollars worth of capital. That's just under 15% of the the U.S.'s 2007 GDP.

So not only did our economy shrink a huge percentage but our government is now spending enormous sums of money on top of that.

Imagine if every single person in the US quit working, buying, trading, etc. for an entire year. That's how much money we're in debt.

We're so fucked it's not even funny.

[theicecreamdan]

I don't have a job...

[sillyvia13]

Me either... been homeless for 6 months
I don't have a job...

george4title - george4title Live - blogTV (http://www.blogtv.com/People/george4title) this guy lives in tent city... George good guy. I feel for him

[SexPanda]

I was in New Orleans a few days back, and a couple homeless guys asked for some change to buy alcohol and drugs. I was shocked by their honesty. So I gave them my pocketful of 1.30ish worth of change and wished them a good day.

It felt good to help the homeless lol.

In all honesty... Change is nice and all... But change costs money, and we really don't have alot of money right now. So look for an increase in taxes across the board, prolly more for the "rich" then us 20k a year living with our parents stealing the used tires from behind Firestone crowd lol.

Clean energy? LMAO. Yeah, lets pull some windmills out of our ass and make America self-sufficient! That'll cost a pretty penny.
Healthcare for the unemployed? Honestly, there are always jobs, just some of them are less "respectful" then others. If I had to support a family, pay a mortgage and other bills, and still save money, and I'd been laid off of my 60k a year job, you'd be rest assured that I'd be working at McD's and Burgerking 60 hours a week yo. And my wife would be working too. It'd be hecktic, but its better than being homeless.

I see a huge cut in defence spending coming up soon. I might be wrong, but I would almost bet money Im right. Who needs an army, right? Navy? Thats a shade of blue. Marine? What about the water?

[Gnnr]

We're so fucked it's not even funny.

Ehh, either I'm naive, or an optimist, or skeptical, or people cried wolf to many times. I don't know. But I'll believe we're fucked when I see these doomsday predictions come true. lol. Maybe America has become too pussy. Oh crap, I can't get a loan. The world is over. I bet people from the 30s sucked it up and kept it moving. random thought. Hmm, maybe I should go see Cinderella Man again...

[neverrain]

I bet people from the 30s sucked it up and kept it moving

Then they jumped out of buildings. Unfortunately, the pussification of America has placed safety restrictions on everything, so now the people who want to jump out of buildings can't because their office window is triple thick and doesn't open.

That IKEA desk chair will never break through that glass.

[HalveBlue]

Ehh, either I'm naive, or an optimist, or skeptical, or people cried wolf to many times. I don't know. But I'll believe we're fucked when I see these doomsday predictions come true. lol. Maybe America has become too pussy. Oh crap, I can't get a loan. The world is over. I bet people from the 30s sucked it up and kept it moving. random thought. Hmm, maybe I should go see Cinderella Man again...

Fair enough.

However, I think if you studied economics a little more closely you'd realize the serious and complex shit we're in.

Keep in mind, in 2008 the estimated U.S. GDP decreased around 2 trillion dollars from the previous years GDP. That's just a hair under 15%.

The Great Depressioin saw GDP decline from over 800 billion dollars in 1929, to just over 600 billion dollars in 1932. The U.S. effectively lost 1/4 of it's GDP in three years, with an average rate of ~8% per year. We lost almost twice that much last year alone.

Also, always remember that market corrections aren't instantaneous. That means the effects of a lot of stuff that's happening now won't become apparent for at least another 3 months.

The state of our economy today imitates quite closely the state of the economy in 1929, if you believe some economists (including Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke).

I hope you're right, and this thing just blow over.

I really doubt it though.

[sillyvia13]

Well the great Depression was said to look like a late car payment compaired to what we are in for...

All I know is...
I am not happy with my future.
Take care of your self now and prepare for the worst.
If not your ready anyway. "better safe than sorry" Your gonna have to take care of your entire fam.

as for percentage of unemployed.
The self employed, do not make it to that list, the business owners don't make it to that list.
only employees of a company with xx workers.
Imagine how many illegal business went under! ;)... just sayin.

[HalveBlue]

Who's down for investment strategy talk?

I'm down with gold, coke, and pharmaceutical and medical companies.

[Gnnr]

Fair enough.

However, I think if you studied economics a little more closely you'd realize the serious and complex shit we're in.

Keep in mind, in 2008 the estimated U.S. GDP decreased around 2 trillion dollars from the previous years GDP. That's just a hair under 15%.

The Great Depressioin saw GDP decline from over 800 billion dollars in 1929, to just over 600 billion dollars in 1932. The U.S. effectively lost 1/4 of it's GDP in three years, with an average rate of ~8% per year. We lost almost twice that much last year alone.

Also, always remember that market corrections aren't instantaneous. That means the effects of a lot of stuff that's happening now won't become apparent for at least another 3 months.

The state of our economy today imitates quite closely the state of the economy in 1929, if you believe some economists (including Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke).

I hope you're right, and this thing just blow over.

I really doubt it though.

I don't know it all. But I know more than that. Its in the area I'm studying for (BBA/MIS).

What I've gathered from all this is this. We know a LOT more than we did back then. We did many things during the depression to make it worse (the government cutting spending and tightening budgets for instance, when it should have been pumping money into the system is one example). Economic principles we know very well today where barely recognized then. Regulation was almost non-existent. Back then they labeled everything a "panic" and thought that things like unemployment would fix itself. There are too many things in place, things that didn't exist or we didn't know about then, for it to happen again.

Bleehhh, like I said. I'll believe the sky is falling when it happens.

[sillyvia13]

fiat money = fail.
Simple.

Gold based money = win.

Back our money with legit currency.
Dude when the sky falls. dont look to stock food and shit then.
You'll be with the rest of the none believers

[codyace]

fiat money = fail.
Simple.

Gold based money = win.

Back our money with legit currency.
Dude when the sky falls. dont look to stock food and shit then.
You'll be with the rest of the none believers

Going back to a gold based system would put us right back into the upper 5 percent of rich people....and the rest of us slugs...It's a great idea on paper, but would crush the global economy. The Fiat (fractional reserve) system works just fine, as long as everyone plays by the rule and respects the system....but I guess that holds true for everything in life....





I know it may not be much, but I often wonder what our actual federal deficit would be if we were to 'collect' from all of the countries that owe us money....I find it interesting that people are quick to claim that we owe XXX country XXX money, but fail to bring up the fact that country YYY has owed us YYY for much longer....


FWIW: While we may have the same symptoms has post war economies in our past, and the great depression, we have COUNTLESS more systems and balances in place now to prevent such a thing from happening....that is not to say it's impossible, but certainly not as easy for it happen as it has in the past.

[ZenkiKid]

its weird, tonight was the first time i went to the mall in ages and a bunch of the stores are having closing sales, its starting to seem as if you arent really a corporate owned store you wont last nowadays

[sillyvia13]

YouTube - Obama's Puppetmaster (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEpvOUNeXCw)

listen closely, if you think you missed it watch again.
Very Interesting.

[KA24DESOneThree]

It's not a depression, yet.

It will become one. Then, you'll all be looking at the person you're supposed to listen to because "it's the path we chose" and he'll be panicking. Have you ever seen a deer frozen in a car's headlights? That'll be Obama. He'll be left with a stack of bills amassed by this White House.

We might as well have given our country some concrete shoes, and the water's rising.

Besides, the economy isn't even our biggest issue. Our biggest issue is the constant erosion of our civil liberties, and Obama, our saviour, our very own black jesus, contributed. Without freedom, a working economy is pointless.

[Gnnr]

LMFAO! This is why I can't take the comments on this board seriously. The man isn't even president yet. :rofl:

The internet is serious business yo!

[HyperTek]

even the video game guys are seeing a bad time, this guy just got fired from Eidos *i guess he worked on the last tomb raider game* and hes talkin about how the guys who work hard got fired, and the higher ups are just buying ferraris and chilling on millions without doing much input, and how tomb raider underworld didnt meet their expectations, but how the guys who made the decisions about releasing that game early/pushing it out still have their jobs etc..

I'm one of the 30 who got fired by Eidos, ask away - www.tombraiderforums.com (http://www.tombraiderforums.com/showthread.php?t=144330)

[imotion s14]

Lol, I'm not so sure that all government intervention is bad, but I'd like to think that some are more disastrous than others.

It almost always is when it comes to the economy.

In the 2008 financial crisis, I'm more convinced the culprit was poor regulation of sub-prime loans instead of insufficient regulation of the overall economy.That's like saying "if only we regulated people walking off cliffs". The government could have regulated it. But that was not politically palatable.

Fannie and Freddie's political goal was to give low income earners a chance to own homes and meet lending quotas for HUD. Lending standards went out the window because government interfered in housing. Economic reality took a back seat to political pandering.

I have no problem with government acts that encourage lending that was otherwise restricted to racial factors. If you have $ and a sufficient credit history, I'm not sure why it makes sense to discriminate lending based on race and other non-financial factors. However, I do think it's questionable to lend $$$ out to lower-middle income households that cannot realistically pay it off. economic policy and being PC about class discrimination shouldn't be mixed together.They we're just encouraging home ownership, they had their hands all over it. They chartered Fannie and Freddie, they made it possible for theses high risk loans possible. Home ownership is a HUGE financial commitment. It takes financially disciplined people to be homeowners.

If regulation has to be put in effect, address the source of the problem. prohibit junk loans entirely. I'm not convinced that anything will be solved by regulating any other part of the economy.And who was it that were purchasing those junk mortgages?

Good ole government chartered, Freddie and Fannie. Government's commitment to making sure every American had a chance to own a house, financial stability and credit worthiness be damned.

Like I said.. there is the politics and economic reality.

Oh really? Where'd you get that from? Wikipedia? Because I've actually read studies and seen documentaries on it. The craze really began in 98 and what was happening before was the humble beginnings of it...prove me wrong though, I always like to learn more.

I got it from the WSJ.

Portals - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116294042194116133-X1cHBIVB9HHJA_OYjXWjl1gN2HM_20071107.html)

imotion, very thoughtfull post. Couple things...

According to the prevailing economic school of thought, one way to pull an economy out of a recession/depression is through what's called expansionary fiscal policy.

Milton Friedman destroyed the very basis of Keynes' general theory and proved it in the 70s. Why are we still following that non-sense?

Basically having the government spend a bunch of money on projects (Common example: The public infrastructure projects done under FDR (Interstate highway system, Hoover dam, etc...). Now, that's not to say that any government spending is usefull. The key is to invest in projects and infrastructure that can help our nation become more efficient and productive in the future. Simply racking up a huge debt fighting a war will not by itself help the situation. Keynesian theory is that the government should run up a deficit to put money into the hands of people, in theory the people would take that money and spend it and circulate it int he economy to creating aggregate demand.

But this falls flat on it's face because it doesn't take into account where the money comes from. Government has no real wealth, they don't create things, merely re-distributes what it takes/borrows.

For government to stimulate the economy they have to take from the economy or borrow it. They say that it would be a boost to consumer spending instead of letting cash sit idle.

BUT!

Where do we all keep our money?

The bank.

Money in the bank as you know does not sit idle. It's invested back into the economy.

AHA! But in this kind of economic environment, banks won't loan!

To that I say what ever stimulus we get in this type of economic environment we're more then likely to save it, so the money goes into the bank anyway.

Japan spent trillions of yen to revive their asset bubble in the 90s, public works, propping up failed businesses. They cut rates, just massive government stimuli packages and what did it achieve?

Nothing, they have never fully recovered from that. All that resources was misdirected and wasted instead of being spent on boosting economic productivity.

Politicians generally don't know dick about the economy and we're saying they should be directing the economy during times of recession? That makes no sense to me, the market will correct itself, that means we have to let people face the consequences of their actions.

That's the very source of the problem is that we refuse to let people fail because it's not politically palatable to do so. If we let them fail, the people who are competent takes over the resource and make better use of it.

Instead we bailout and prop up failures and tell them they are too big to fail and create a moral hazard where they have a perverse incentive to take bigger risk because they know down the line they will get bailed out.

The problem with public works is it doesn't create productive work and it's a shitty investment. It's work just to work and it produces absolutely nothing and takes away resources for a real recovery.

Couldn't agree with you more. As our manufacturing sectors have been slowly phased out, we have more and more become an economy based on secondary goods and services (roughly 30%), such as insurance, consulting, and financial services. Basically we have built an economy based on people moving money around. While this is great and all, and certainly has a place within the economy, I beleive that there is a disproportionate number of people and resources devoted solely to day trading fucking wheat futures in lebanon to try score a quick grand or two.

I was kind of an econ nut in highschool. Forgive me Well that's my point, the whole recession is like a fever for our economy. The fever is just a symptom that tells us our body is working to destroy the sickness.

The sickness being our debt-based consumption and service economy. We became a world economic power because of our manufacturing and savings. Over the last 20 or so years we became an economy that needed unlimited amounts of credit to keep our bubble economy going.

That just isn't possible. What the government wants to do is get rid of the fever because they think the symptom is the problem when it's actually the solution.

Ehh, either I'm naive, or an optimist, or skeptical, or people cried wolf to many times. I don't know. But I'll believe we're fucked when I see these doomsday predictions come true. lol. Maybe America has become too pussy. Oh crap, I can't get a loan. The world is over. I bet people from the 30s sucked it up and kept it moving. random thought. Hmm, maybe I should go see Cinderella Man again...

The writing is on the wall. If you don't want to see it, refuse to see it then oh well.

The Feds announced they are buying up unlimited bonds in the future.. BAM bond market rallies out of nowhere. Risk free profit for bond speculators looking to short government bonds in the near future. No one is buying bonds to hold to maturity. It's all speculation because the Feds put it all out in the open EXACTLY what they are going to do.

They're not trying to hide the fact they are trying to re-inflate the bubble. They're doing it by running up massive deficit.. yet you see absolutely NOTHING wrong?

Oh I forget you're a Keynesian, government is suppose to run up huge deficits.

Who's down for investment strategy talk?

I'm down with gold, coke, and pharmaceutical and medical companies.

I'm down! I wish I had the money to grab some stocks tho.. really once in a lifetime opportunity to get some really good stocks with good yields.

I don't know it all. But I know more than that. Its in the area I'm studying for (BBA/MIS).

What I've gathered from all this is this. We know a LOT more than we did back then. We did many things during the depression to make it worse (the government cutting spending and tightening budgets for instance, when it should have been pumping money into the system is one example).

Governmentspent massive amounts of money, Hoover up until then had spent more then any president before him. In fact FDR ran on a platform accusing him of such. :lol

Japan pumped hundreds of trillions of yen when their asset bubble burst to prop up failing banks,companies and massive public works. The 1990s was their "lost decade" for them. Even to this day they haven't fully recovered from that. The Nikkei is nowhere near the dizzying heights it was at during their bubble days.

[qoute]Economic principles we know very well today where barely recognized then. Regulation was almost non-existent. Back then they labeled everything a "panic" and thought that things like unemployment would fix itself. There are too many things in place, things that didn't exist or we didn't know about then, for it to happen again.

The market was fixing itself, unemployment was at a ~9%. But then came the government to solve everything. Smooth-Hawley was passed because they wanted to make it so people would buy domestic goods. That would solve the nagging unemployment by creating more demand for domestic goods thus solving the unemployment issue! All it did was ignite a huge trade war because trade is a 2 way street. Now American companies were cut off from a world market and unemployment shot up rapidly.

Bleehhh, like I said. I'll believe the sky is falling when it happens.it's happening, but like I said you're a mainstreamer, a Keynesian so everything the government is doing is correct in your view.

Going back to a gold based system would put us right back into the upper 5 percent of rich people....and the rest of us slugs...

How do you figure? it's the poor people who are better off with a gold standard. The dollar you make today won't buy a dollars worth in the future. Unless you think inflation is a good thing. I think of it as a hidden tax.

It's a great idea on paper, but would crush the global economy. The Fiat (fractional reserve) system works just fine, as long as everyone plays by the rule and respects the system....but I guess that holds true for everything in life....Fiat Currency and Fractional Reserve Banking are 2 separate beast.

Fiat currency is currency that has value because the issuing government says worth and not because of intrinsic value.

Fractional Reserve Banking is the practice of keeping only a fraction of deposits on hand and loaning out the rest hoping that all the depositors (or a significant number of them) don't come to claim their deposits at.

I know it may not be much, but I often wonder what our actual federal deficit would be if we were to 'collect' from all of the countries that owe us money....I find it interesting that people are quick to claim that we owe XXX country XXX money, but fail to bring up the fact that country YYY has owed us YYY for much longer....It won't add up to any where near what we owe. I looked it up and the us was a net creditor of something like 3 billion in the mid 80s. Now we owe something like ~11 trillion.

FWIW: While we may have the same symptoms has post war economies in our past, and the great depression, we have COUNTLESS more systems and balances in place now to prevent such a thing from happening....that is not to say it's impossible, but certainly not as easy for it happen as it has in the past. Well they aren't hiding the fact they are gonna run the printing presses. What else can they do? The interest rates can't get any lower, The supply of money has done nothing BUT increase.

Their idea is to buy time and run up huge deficits in hopes of reviving the bubble economy and then pay it off later on, like the fat guy who keeps saying next week he'll get on a diet.

Never mind that the economy they thought was so good was 2/3rds consumption with borrowed money. I mean it doesn't take a rocket science to see it's a giant ponzi scheme of finding the next sucker to buy up our debt.

I think the countries who lend us money are know realizing somewhat that we're never going to pay them back. The only reason we haven't totally collapse is because people still have the perception that we're good for it.

It's not a depression, yet.

It will become one. Then, you'll all be looking at the person you're supposed to listen to because "it's the path we chose" and he'll be panicking. Have you ever seen a deer frozen in a car's headlights? That'll be Obama. He'll be left with a stack of bills amassed by this White House.

We might as well have given our country some concrete shoes, and the water's rising.

Besides, the economy isn't even our biggest issue. Our biggest issue is the constant erosion of our civil liberties, and Obama, our saviour, our very own black jesus, contributed. Without freedom, a working economy is pointless.

Economic liberty IS individual liberty.

LMFAO! This is why I can't take the comments on this board seriously. The man isn't even president yet.

The internet is serious business yo!

I don't know about that video, but he's already broadcast to the world what he intends to do. He's going to run up the deficit, because in the short run that doesn't matter, we need to ease the pain now and by dig ourselves further into a hole. We can't take the pain now.. yet these clowns in charge promise we'll eventually do it.. when the pain is much more severe down the line? It makes absolutely no sense.