RJF
02-13-2008, 12:48 PM
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
PHOENIX —
Changes in climate and strong demand for Colorado River water could drain Lake Mead by 2021, triggering severe water shortages across the Southwest, scientists said Tuesday in an unusually bleak water-supply outlook.
Researchers working at San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography said the West's largest storage reservoir faces increasing threats from a combination of factors, including human-induced climate change, growing populations and natural forces like drought and evaporation.
A dried-up Lake Mead would be a disaster for Arizona and Nevada. The lake, formed by the Hoover Dam in 1935, is located on the border between the two states.
If water levels were to drop below 1,000 feet in elevation, Nevada would lose access to all its river allocation. Arizona would lose much of the water that flows through the Central Arizona Project canal.
Hydroelectric power production at the Hoover Dam also would cease before the lake level reached bottom, researchers said.
[Lake Mead is the primary source of water and power for nearby Las Vegas, the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the nation since 2000. The Hoover Dam also supplies power to Los Angeles and Phoenix.]
There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead will run dry by 2021 and a 10 percent chance it will run out of usable water by 2014, if the region's current drought deepens and water use climbs, researchers said.
"We were stunned at the magnitude of the problem and how fast it was coming at us," said marine physicist Tim Barnett, who co-authored a paper examining the fate of Lake Mead. "Make no mistake — this water problem is not a scientific abstraction but rather one that will impact each and every one of us that live in the Southwest."
Lakes Mead and Powell help manage water resources for more than 25 million people in the seven states, including Arizona, that rely on the Colorado River for water and power.
The two huge reservoirs have been studied in recent years using numerous hydrology models, but none forecast a dry Lake Mead within 15 years.
"We did a lot of studies, and none of them ever made Lake Mead go dry, period, end of story. We looked 100 years out, and Lake Mead never went dry," said Larry Dozier, deputy general manager of the Central Arizona Project.
Dozier had not seen the Scripps study but worked closely on other models that have produced different results.
"We did what we called our worst case, and it just didn't happen," he said.
Currently, Lake Mead is half-full, as is Lake Powell further upstream in Arizona. Both lakes help manage water resources for more than 25 million people in seven states.
PHOENIX —
Changes in climate and strong demand for Colorado River water could drain Lake Mead by 2021, triggering severe water shortages across the Southwest, scientists said Tuesday in an unusually bleak water-supply outlook.
Researchers working at San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography said the West's largest storage reservoir faces increasing threats from a combination of factors, including human-induced climate change, growing populations and natural forces like drought and evaporation.
A dried-up Lake Mead would be a disaster for Arizona and Nevada. The lake, formed by the Hoover Dam in 1935, is located on the border between the two states.
If water levels were to drop below 1,000 feet in elevation, Nevada would lose access to all its river allocation. Arizona would lose much of the water that flows through the Central Arizona Project canal.
Hydroelectric power production at the Hoover Dam also would cease before the lake level reached bottom, researchers said.
[Lake Mead is the primary source of water and power for nearby Las Vegas, the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the nation since 2000. The Hoover Dam also supplies power to Los Angeles and Phoenix.]
There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead will run dry by 2021 and a 10 percent chance it will run out of usable water by 2014, if the region's current drought deepens and water use climbs, researchers said.
"We were stunned at the magnitude of the problem and how fast it was coming at us," said marine physicist Tim Barnett, who co-authored a paper examining the fate of Lake Mead. "Make no mistake — this water problem is not a scientific abstraction but rather one that will impact each and every one of us that live in the Southwest."
Lakes Mead and Powell help manage water resources for more than 25 million people in the seven states, including Arizona, that rely on the Colorado River for water and power.
The two huge reservoirs have been studied in recent years using numerous hydrology models, but none forecast a dry Lake Mead within 15 years.
"We did a lot of studies, and none of them ever made Lake Mead go dry, period, end of story. We looked 100 years out, and Lake Mead never went dry," said Larry Dozier, deputy general manager of the Central Arizona Project.
Dozier had not seen the Scripps study but worked closely on other models that have produced different results.
"We did what we called our worst case, and it just didn't happen," he said.
Currently, Lake Mead is half-full, as is Lake Powell further upstream in Arizona. Both lakes help manage water resources for more than 25 million people in seven states.